Researchers at Heriot-Watt University are testing whether electrifying HGVs could require larger fleets, using real DHL fleet data to model the London–East Midlands Airport corridor and assess whether heavier batteries and longer charging stops mean hauliers need more vehicles to move the same freight.
The team is building what it calls the UK’s first simulation of a delivery truck run from London to East Midlands Airport. The work sits within TransiT, a UK research hub that uses digital twins (digital replicas of real-world transport systems) to map how the country’s freight could go electric. DHL is feeding in data from part of its 6,500-strong UK fleet of trucks and vans.
The route is a useful test case, as the East Midlands Airport is the UK’s largest dedicated express air freight hub, handling roughly 400,000 tonnes of cargo a year. If electric trucks can hold their own here, on a corridor linked to tight schedules and time-critical air cargo, the findings could strengthen the case for electrifying some long-haul routes.
Bigger fleets, not just more chargers
Dr Alex Foote, a TransiT researcher at Heriot-Watt University, said the DHL data is being used to model the move from an all-diesel fleet to a fully electric one by 2050.
“Using the data from DHL, we’re starting to add in electric trucks to the fleet, to understand the impact of this, based on the frequency and volume of freight they’re moving,” Foote said.
Battery weight and charging time may mean more trucks are needed to keep volumes steady. That turns the work into a productivity test as much as a charging map.
The simulation will examine charging at DHL depots and at service stations along the M1. Foote said the cleanest answer may be to charge at the depot before a shift or during downtime between jobs, to avoid charging stops during revenue-earning journey time.
On longer routes, motorway charging may still be unavoidable.
The team is using agent-based modelling, a method that places virtual drivers, trucks, and other “agents” within a simulated network. The model can compare routes, chargers, charging speeds and fleet mixes, and flag where the local grid could come under pressure if too many trucks try to plug in at once.
10% by 2030, 100% by 2050
The first run models a 2030 scenario in which 10% of the trucks on DHL’s London–East Midlands Airport route are electric. The share then climbs to 50% by 2040 and 100% by 2050, with new vehicles and chargers added as the simulation develops.
Foote wants the work to push back at the assumption that long-haul electric HGVs are still years off.
“I’d like to try and find a way to demonstrate that electric HGVs in long haul freight are viable earlier than people expect and that they can manage the journeys quickly and reliably,” he said.
He added that the UK is “behind the curve” on electric HGV uptake, and that the research could show whether progress is possible “without too many big infrastructure changes.”
The road freight simulation will later be plugged into an air freight model being built at Cranfield University, again in partnership with DHL and East Midlands Airport. TransiT says the long-term plan is a connected web of digital twins covering the entire UK transport network.
If the modelling confirms that electric HGVs need extra vehicles to match diesel volumes, the cost equation for going electric stops being about truck prices and electricity tariffs alone. Charger availability, grid connection waits, driver hours and whether charging can be tucked into existing downtime all start to count — and any of them could decide whether the numbers add up.
